Indiana St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	184.0
Current RPI:	184
Expected SOS:	88
Current SOS:	88
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-3
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	243
Expected OOC SOS:	115

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	184.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Indiana (125.0)	B10	A	69-90	W	100%
11-16	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	N	64-83	L	0%
11-17	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	N	62-44	L	0%
11-19	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	N	96-94	L	0%
11-25	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	85-93	L	0%
11-29	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	74-64	W	100%
12-6	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	79-76	L	0%
12-12	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	85-63	W	100%
12-16	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	81-65	L	0%
12-22	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	68-73	L	0%
12-28	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	73-64	W	100%
12-31	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	84-81	L	0%
1-3	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	57-61	W	100%
1-6	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	72-75	L	0%
1-10	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	69-67	W	100%
1-14	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	76-73	L	0%
1-17	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	66-71	W	100%
1-20	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	84-54	W	100%
1-24	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	82-77	L	0%
1-28	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	73-81	L	0%
1-31	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	69-63	L	0%
2-3	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	66-77	W	100%
2-6	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	62-81	L	0%
2-10	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	71-75	L	0%
2-14	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	90-76	L	0%
2-17	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	72-76	L	0%
2-21	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	58-53	W	100%
2-24	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	64-66	W	100%
3-2	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	N	77-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Indiana St.	MVC	26.41	26.41	37.06	37.06	-6.83	-6.83
Illinois St.	MVC	6.17	6.17	51.72	51.72	0.21	0.21
Loyola Chicago	MVC	4.58	4.58	86.67	86.67	3.36	3.36
Missouri St.	MVC	4.53	4.53	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.52	4.52	56.67	56.67	0.60	0.60
Bradley	MVC	4.50	4.50	60.00	60.00	0.90	0.90
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.49	4.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	4.46	4.46	42.86	42.86	-0.64	-0.64
Drake	MVC	4.44	4.44	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Evansville	MVC	4.44	4.44	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.92	1.92	68.75	68.75	0.72	0.72
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.83	1.83	77.42	77.42	1.00	1.00
Ball St.	MAC	1.81	1.81	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Ohio	MAC	1.78	1.78	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
North Texas	CUSA	1.78	1.78	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Air Force	MWC	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Auburn	SEC	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.95	0.95
Elon	CAA	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Green Bay	Horz	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Indiana	B10	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Kent St.	MAC	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.22	0.22	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.19	0.19	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Chicago St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	3.33	3.33	-0.16	-0.16
FIU	CUSA	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
UTSA	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	82.76	82.76	0.11	0.11
Tulsa	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SB	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01